Musing on Iran

So Iran is testing missiles capable of reaching Israel (though they have doctored photos). Of course, both McCain and Obama have criticized Iran for doing so, as has the US government, though Obama did reiterate the need for diplomacy. This incident is only one of many that have made the Iran / US relationship difficult of late. Not only does the US still suspect Iran of having a nuclear weapons program (despite last fall’s NIE), but now Israel has carried out a military exercise that could be a demonstration that it could hit Iran. All sides seemed to be engaged in an effort to prove to the others that they will not back down in the face of threats. Of course, not backing down in the face of threats is, itself, seen as threatening, necessitating more threats. The US believes Iran is threatening because of actions like the missile test and the lack of disclosure on missile test, so we get tough-sounding rhetoric from Bush & Cheney to go with clandestine military action. Israel announces that it will not accept a nuclear Iran, and demonstrates its military prowess. Then we have Iran testing long-range missiles and noting that they have military abilities of their own.

What is missing in all of this saber rattling is any one side carrying out policy based on the notion that if I am threatened by the other side, then they may also be threatened by me. Yes, the US seems threatened by some of the rhetoric and actions out of Iran. Yes, Iran has the capacity to harm Israel. But the US and Israel also have the capacity to harm Iran and may already be doing so. How do we get countries to step back from the brink of this security dilemma? All this posturing reminds one of a playground brawl where no party to the dispute was willing to back down.

Sadly, if Steve Clemons’ observations from last summer, and Seymour Hersh’s recent revelations prove true, the US may be engaged in another war by December. Why? Because they won’t respond to our threats the way we would like, and we won’t respond the way they would like. And failure to respond to threats with threats is weak. Why can’t we all just take a deep breath and step back for a moment?